Data highlight
November 1, 2024
North Dakota leads the nation in GDP growth.
North Dakota's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fluctuates often as it is largely influenced by its energy and agriculture sectors. With moderate growth before 2020, North Dakota’s economy suffered the effects of the pandemic with a substantial GDP decline in 2020. Following this period, North Dakota's economy slowly recovered and in 2023, North Dakota’s annual GDP growth was larger than any other state (5.9%) and more than double the national average of 2.5 percent.
Leading all other industries, Mining, Quarrying and Oil and Gas extraction accounted for 14 percent of North Dakota's GDP in 2023 and was the leading contributor to the state’s overall GDP growth (3.0 percentage points). Other key sectors such as Manufacturing; Construction; Real Estate and Rental and Leasing also had important contributions in North Dakota's annual GDP growth.
At the local level, North Dakota's GDP varies due to unique economic drivers across regions.
- Counties in the western part of the state often have much higher GDP per capita but are subject to fluctuations based on global oil prices.
- Central and eastern counties tend to have more stable but lower GDP due to the prevalence of farming in their economies.
- Urban counties such as Cass, Burleigh, and Grand Forks have more diverse economic bases and therefore generally report higher and more stable GDP levels.
Tracking these trends offers insights into North Dakota’s economic landscape by highlighting each region’s unique contributions and illustrating how changes in the energy and agriculture sectors can affect both local communities and the state’s economy as a whole.
Notes: Gross domestic product (GDP) is the measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced by labor and property located in a specific region. GDP by state is the state counterpart of the nation's gross domestic product, the most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP by state is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all the industries in a state.
The statistics of real GDP by state are prepared in chained (2017) dollars. Real GDP by state is an inflation-adjusted measure of each state's gross product that is based on national prices for the goods and services produced within that state.
VIEW TOPIC: ECONOMY / Economic Output (GDP)
October 1, 2024
Disparities in High School Graduation Rates Persist in North Dakota.
Developments in science and technology have created jobs that did not exist before. A high school diploma opens doors for better employment and also for higher education. Studies show that students who graduate from high school have higher self-esteem, feel more confident in pursuing a career, and have opportunities for higher lifetime earnings.
For a little over a decade, North Dakota high school graduation rates held fairly constant reaching 89 percent in 2020. However, after 2020, the rates decreased annually to a rate of 82 percent by 2024.
Current North Dakota high school graduation rates also show significant disparities among different student groups. White students and those who are not low-income have the highest graduation rates at 88 percent. In comparison, graduation rates are lower among most other racial and ethnic groups. Asian students have an 80 percent graduation rate, which is the closest graduation rate to that of white students. However, Black, Hispanic, and American Indian students have larger gaps in graduation rates compared to white students (17, 19 and 25 percentage point differences, respectively). Economically disadvantaged students (low-income) also experience a graduation rate gap of 20 percentage points compared to their non low-income peers.
Female students in North Dakota generally graduate at higher rates than male students. In addition, students of special populations, including English learners and students with disabilities, graduate at lower rates than the overall student population in the state.
North Dakota students who face the greatest challenges to graduating high school on-time are those who are homeless. Only about half of homeless students obtain a high school diploma or completed a General Equivalency Diploma (GED) within four years of entering 9th grade (52%).
These significant gaps suggest that structural barriers, such as socioeconomic conditions, disabilities, and language proficiency, play a critical role in students' ability to graduate.
Note:
Data are for public school districts only; excludes all private schools.
Data in this measure reflect the four-year on-time graduation rate, or the percentage of high school students who graduate by obtaining a high school diploma or who completed a General Equivalency Diploma (GED) within four years of entering the 9th grade. Students within the initial cohort who graduate, drop out, or continue beyond the fourth year of high school after entering the 9th grade are included within the On-Time Graduation Rate calculation, while students recorded as transferring to another school or district are removed from the calculation and do not count against a school or district.
VIEW TOPIC: EDUCATION / HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION
September 1, 2024
North Dakota's preschool enrollment rates continue to lag significantly behind the national average.
The percentage of children 3- and 4-year-old enrolled in preschool is an early indicator of academic preparation. Preschool programs, which include organized childcare offering educational experiences, play a crucial role in the years leading up to kindergarten. Attending preschool lays the foundation for lifelong learning, social interaction, and emotional well-being, equipping children with essential skills and knowledge that benefit them throughout their lives.
In North Dakota, the percentage of 3- and 4-year-olds enrolled in preschool has historically trended below the national average, highlighting ongoing challenges in early childhood education access. The state consistently ranks last among the 50 states in preschool enrollment for this age group. In 2022, only 29 percent of North Dakota’s 3- and 4-year-old children were enrolled in some form of preschool, compared to a national average of 47 percent, with the highest-ranking state reporting 67 percent enrollment. Of those enrolled in preschool in North Dakota, two-thirds attend public programs, indicating a heavy reliance on public institutions to meet early education needs. Only eight states have a higher percentage of young children enrolled in public preschool.
However, North Dakota’s preschool enrollment rates vary significantly across the state. In counties with reliable data, preschool enrollment ranges from 16 percent to 78 percent, reflecting substantial disparities in access to preschool education. These differences accentuate the need for targeted efforts to ensure all children in North Dakota have the opportunity to participate in early learning programs.
VIEW TOPIC: EARLY CHILDHOOD/PRESCHOOL ENROLLMENT
August 1, 2024
A decrease in the working-age population relative to the number of older adults has implications for the future.
Changes in the population's age structure have significant implications for society. Nationwide, declining birth rates, combined with increased life expectancy and the aging of the baby boomer generation, have led to a decrease in the working-age population (ages 18 to 64) relative to the older adult population (ages 65 and older).
In North Dakota, there were approximately 4.4 working-age individuals for every older adult in 2010. By 2020, this ratio dropped to 3.8, and by 2023, there were only 3.5 working-age individuals for every older adult in the state.
Despite North Dakota having one of the lowest median ages (36.0 in 2023), the ratio of working-age individuals to older adults is expected to continue decreasing. Low ratios of working-age individuals to older adults present challenges in workforce availability, retirement plans, service availability, and elder care.
In 2023, these ratios varied considerably by county, ranging from 1.2 in Sheridan County to 5.9 in Sioux County. Several oil-producing counties and those surrounding metropolitan areas maintain higher numbers of working-age individuals relative to older adults. Understanding how this ratio impacts residents at the county level allows for better-directed use of current resources and more effective strategic planning for the future.
Data Source:
US Census Bureau, Population and Housing Unit Estimates
State and County Population by sex and age.
July 1, 2024
In the past year, North Dakota experienced growth around the majority of its most populous cities.
The areas around North Dakota’s largest cities experienced the most population growth from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, according to new population estimates for cities and towns, released in May by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Fargo, West Fargo and Horace collectively gained 3,538 people in the past year (from July 2022 to July 2023). Bismarck, Mandan and Lincoln jointly increased population by 728 people, while Williston added 775 people on its own. Grant Forks increased its population by 227 people and Dickinson grew by 214 people. The fastest-growing city in North Dakota by percent change was Horace, with a 32 percent increase in population from 2022 to 2023.
Conversely, Minot experienced the largest population decline among North Dakota cities, losing 316 people. Grafton also lost 67 people and Jamestown saw a decrease of 64 people from 2022 to 2023.
Click HERE for an interactive view.
VIEW TOPIC: DEMOGRAPHICS/POPULATION
June 1, 2024
Age group dynamics in North Dakota’s rate of adults working .
The 'rate of adults working' is a metric used to evaluate the outlook of the labor market, indicating the economy's capacity to accommodate employment for a growing population. It is calculated by dividing the number of employed individuals aged 16-64 by the non-institutionalized civilian population. This measure differs from the ‘employment rate’, which divides the number of employed individuals by the number of people in labor force—those either working or actively seeking work.
While a high rate of adults working indicates a significant portion of the population being employed, leading to positive economic effects, a lower rate among younger demographics may not necessarily be viewed as negative. Instead, it may suggest a trend of pursuing higher education, thus delaying entry into the labor force.
With a rate of adults working of 79 percent in 2022, North Dakota has the highest rate of employed working-age population (age 16-64) among all 50 states. Remarkably, North Dakota has consistently held this top position, ranking first among states in this category for 10 out of the 13 years spanning from 2010 to 2022, and continuing to be among the top four states in the remaining years.
The rate of adults working increases with age among young adults age 16-24, as they graduate from various education levels and enter the workforce. Among adults age 25 and older, those age 25-44 exhibit the highest workforce participation rate, reaching 86 percent overall. However, this rate declines for older age groups, dropping to 78 percent for adults aged 45-54, and significantly lower to 21 percent for those age 65 and older.
North Dakota has experienced little change in the rate of adults working from 2010 to 2022 across age groups. Exceptions to this trend include an increase in the participation rate among 20-21-year-olds, rising from 67 percent in 2010 to 77 percent in 2022. Additionally, adults age 62-64 saw an increase in participation from 55 percent to 61 percent during the same period.
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
View topic: WORKFORCE/ Proportion of adults working
May 1, 2024
More than 3 in 4 North Dakota adult males are overweight or obese.
Overweight and obesity are conditions characterized by an excessive accumulation of fat cells in the body that can impair individuals’ health. Obesity specifically is a complex chronic disease which can lead to additional health issues such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and some cancers. It can also impact reproductive and bone health, in addition to affecting activities of daily living like the ability to move and sleep.
Data from the 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFFS) reveals that an estimated 36 percent of North Dakota adults are overweight, with an additional 35 percent are classified as obese. Notably, while the prevalence of overweight North Dakota adults has remained steady since 2011 at 36 percent, when compared to other states, North Dakota's ranking has shifted from 31st in 2011 to 44th in 2022 (with the lowest percentage of adults who are overweight ranking first). Similarly, the obesity rate has increased from 28 percent in 2011 to 35 percent in 2022, accompanied by a rise in the national ranking from 26th to 33rd.
Among North Dakota adults, males are more likely than females to be overweight or obese. In 2022, 31 percent of females were overweight, with an additional 34 percent classified as obese, whereas 40 percent of males were overweight and 37 percent were obese. While the percentage of overweight males or females has seen marginal change, the obesity rate among North Dakota adult males has increased from 30 percent in 2011 to 37 percent in 2022. Similarly, the obesity rate of adult females has increased from 25 percent in 2011 to 34 percent in 2022.
Encouraging healthy lifestyle habits to combat overweight and obesity is important for promoting well-being and reducing the incidence of related chronic diseases in the state.
Note:
Weight and height responses in the BRFFS survey of adults, age 18 and older, were used to determine a body mass index (BMI). Respondents were classified as overweight if their BMI was equal to or greater than 25.0, but less than 30.0. They were classified as obese if their BMI was 30.0 or greater.
Explore the Overweight and Obesity dashboard
April 1, 2024
Western North Dakota counties gain population, reversing a downward trend.
From July 2022 to July 2023, North Dakota’s population increased by 5,014 people overall. According to the most recent county population estimates released by the Census Bureau on March 14, 2024, Cass County leads North Dakota counties in population increase by adding 3,649 residents during this time period. Williams County followed Cass County in population gain with an addition of 1,147 people and Burleigh County added 616 people. Another 14 counties gained population in addition to the three mentioned. The remaining 36 counties lost population, with Ward, Walsh, and Rolette counties losing at least 100 people each. Ward County had the largest decrease, with a loss of 456 people.
Percentage wise, Williams County leads the North Dakota counties in percent of population growth (3%) from 2022 to 2023 and the Williston micropolitan area, which is comprised of Williams County, is among the five fastest-growing U.S. micropolitan areas during the same time period. This is remarkable, considering that Williams County lost population the previous two years (-2,683 people in 2021 and -533 people in 2022). McKenzie County also increased its population by 2.6 percent from 2022 to 2023 after only a small increase of 0.2 percent in the previous year and a loss of 6.2 percent in 2021.
Other western counties also reversed their downward trend in population change. Mountrail County’s population increased by 1.5 percent in 2023 after losing 3.4 percent of its population in 2022 and 2.4 percent in 2021. Stark, Hettinger, Adams and Burke are also among counties with a slight increase in population following declines in the previous two years. While the population increase in the western counties is due to both natural change and in-migration, the reversal of trends is due to more people entering the counties (in-migration) than leaving the counties as compared to the opposite in the previous two years.
Color legend:
The darker the green the largest the population gain
The darker the blue, the largest the population loss
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population and Housing Unit Estimates, Vintage 2023 Estimates
View topic:DEMOGRAPHICS / POPULATION
March 1, 2024
A glimpse into North Dakota’s older workforce.
Over the past two decades, the number of older adults (age 65 and older) in North Dakota who are employed has more than doubled, from 12,956 in 2000 to 27,715 in 2022. The growth can partly be attributed to the aging population, particularly with the onset of the baby boom cohort reaching 65 in 2011. Additional factors such as increased educational attainment among older adults, higher life expectancies, changing retirement policies, and the availability of age-friendly employment opportunities have all contributed to this trend.
North Dakota has consistently surpassed the national average since 2010 in terms of its proportion of older adults who remain in the workforce. In 2022, 21 percent of the state’s older adult population was employed, compared to 18 percent nationwide. There is a gender disparity in post-retirement employment, with males being more likely to continue working compared to females. In 2022, 26 percent of North Dakota’s males, age 65 and older, were employed, in contrast to 17 percent of females. Breaking down the data by age groups, 38 percent of older adults age 65 to 69 were still in the workforce, followed by 22 percent of those age 70 to 74, and 7 percent of individuals older than 75, in North Dakota in 2022.
Note:
The percent of adults who are employed represents the number of people who are employed divided by the total civilian population (civilian labor force plus people not in the labor force). A person is counted as employed if they did any work during the reference period as a paid employee, worked in their own business or profession (including farming), or worked 15 or more unpaid hours a week as part of a family business or farm..
View topic: WORKFORCE / Proportion of adults working
February 1, 2024
The educational profile of older adults in North Dakota saw a significant improvement since 2010.
Educational attainment refers to the highest level of education completed (e.g., a high school diploma, a bachelor's degree, or a master's degree). In 2022, approximately 9 in 10 adults (age 25 and older) had at least a high school diploma or GED (94%), 1 in 3 of adults (32%) had a bachelor’s degree or higher, and 6 percent of adults had less than high school education.
Educational attainment increased overall in North Dakota from 2010 to 2022. While the percentage of adults age 25 to 64 with at least a high school education and at least a bachelor’s degree saw less change, a notable shift occurred among older adults (age 65 and older).
During this time frame, the educational profile of older adults saw a significant improvement. The percentage of older adults with at least a high school education increased from 75 percent in 2010 to 92 percent in 2022. Additionally, the proportion of older adults holding a bachelor's degree or higher rose from 15 percent in 2010 to 26 percent in 2022. This shift can be attributed to the replacement of cohorts that have less formal education with cohorts that have greater levels of formal education in the older age groups.
View topic: WORKFORCE / Educational Attainment
January 1, 2024
North Dakota continues to gain population in 2023.
North Dakota reached 783,926 people (as of July 1, 2023), according to the population estimate released in December 2023 by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Units Estimates Program. This is an increase of 5,014 people from the 2022 estimate of 778,912 (which is a revised 2022 estimate). Annual releases of population and housing unit estimates involve revisions to yearly estimates going back to the most recent decennial census and are based on updated administrative records, geographic boundaries, and methodology. A look at the components of change over the past three years reveals notable trends. Although annual births saw a slight decline, a corresponding decrease in deaths resulted in an overall growth in natural change (births minus deaths). Most recently, North Dakota recorded 9,649 births and 6,945 deaths from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, accounting for a net natural increase of 2,704.
Another significant factor in population change is net migration, calculated as the difference between individuals entering the state (in-migration) and those leaving (out-migration). In the period from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, North Dakota experienced a positive net migration, which deviates from the negative trends in the previous two years (negative 3,555 in 2021 and negative 1,467 in 2022). This positive shift is attributed to an increase in international migration (2,298 people) and minimal domestic out-migration (-9 people) compared to previous years.
Maintaining a positive natural increase and the ability to attract and retain residents contributes to North Dakota’s continued population increase.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population and Housing Unit Estimates Vintage 2023 Estimates
Data Highlight Archive
Center for Social Research
North Dakota State University
Compass created by:
Wilder Research
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