Data highlight

March 1, 2025

North Dakota’s projected population growth not consistent across age groups and geographies.

Age-based population projections provide essential insights for long-term planning across various sectors. A young population might indicate future growth but may also require investments in education and childcare. An older population may signal a shrinking workforce and a focus on healthcare services, senior housing, and programs that support aging in place.

According to the 2024 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment recently conducted by NDSU’s Center for Social Research in partnership with and on behalf of the North Dakota Housing Finance Agency, North Dakota's population is projected to grow by 27,777 people over five years, from 776,874 in 2022 to 804,651 in 2027 (a 4% growth rate). However, this growth is not expected to be consistent across age groups or geographies.

The most significant population change by 2027 will be the continued aging of the baby-boom generation (those born from 1946 through 1964). Statewide, the population of individuals age 65 and older is projected to increase by 22 percent rising from 123,220 in 2022 to 150,309 in 2027. Every region in the state is expected to see growth in this age group, with increases ranging from 9 percent in Region III to 28 percent in Region V.

Conversely, the 45 to 64 age group is projected to decrease by 3 percent (4,415 people) statewide by 2027, mainly due to the aging forward of baby boomers who are moving into older age categories. While modest growth is expected in Regions I, V, and II (with increases of 5%, 4%, and 2%, respectively), the remaining five of the eight planning regions are expected to experience losses in this age group, with the largest decreases in Regions III and VI, both projected to lose 13 percent.

The population of children and youth in the 0 to 24 age group in North Dakota is projected to remain relatively steady, with a slight decrease of just 0.1 percent from 2022 to 2027. However, in the western part of the state, growth is expected as Region I is projected to grow by 5 percent and Region VIII by 6 percent. Region V is also expected to see modest growth of 2 percent in this age group. In contrast, other areas of the state are expected to experience little change (Regions III, VI, and VII) or a decrease (Regions IV and II, 6% and 3%, respectively).

For the 25 to 44 age group, North Dakota’s population is forecasted to grow by 3 percent by 2027. The eastern part of the state, particularly Regions V and IV, is expected to see the largest increases (9% and 5%, respectively). However, Region II is projected to experience the largest decrease in this age group, with a loss of 8 percent.

To select age groups, click here to open an interactive dashboard.

Data source: 2024 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment - NDSU Center for Social Research Report No. 113 (February 2025)

February 1, 2025

Racial and Ethnic Diversity in North Dakota Nearly Doubled Since 2010.

North Dakota has experienced significant growth in racial and ethnic diversity over the past 10-15 years, which was influenced by a combination of economic, demographic, and social factors. One key driver was energy development in the western part of the state, which attracted young workers and their families, many from diverse racial and ethnic backgrounds seeking employment in the energy and construction industries. As a result, North Dakota’s population identifying as a race other than non-Hispanic white almost doubled from 74,600 in 2010 to 145,314 in 2023 - a 95 percent increase. However, this growth varied significantly among different racial and ethnic groups.

Please interpret the following differences in racial and ethnic composition with caution as they may be impacted by changes implemented by the Census Bureau in question design, processing, and coding, to better capture how people choose to self-identify.

The white population, the largest group in North Dakota with 647,059 people identifying as white alone (83% of total population) and 697,402 as white alone or in combination with another race (89% of total population) in 2023, increased at the lowest rate as compared with other racial and ethnic groups. The white alone population increased by 7 percent since 2010, while the white alone and in combination category grew by 13 percent during the same time period.
North Dakota's American Indian population remained the largest non-white racial group, representing 4 percent of the state’s population in 2023. Growth in this group has been modest, with the American Indian or Alaska Native alone population increasing by 3 percent since 2010. However, individuals identifying as American Indian alone and in combination with another race grew by 21 percent, from 42,100 in 2010 to 50,766 in 2023.
The number of North Dakotans who identify as Black or African American alone nearly tripled (185% increase) from 8,601 people in 2010 to 24,479 people in 2023. Those identifying as Black or African American alone and in combination with other races saw an even greater increase of 219 percent.
The Asian population in North Dakota also grew, though at a lower rate compared to other groups. People identifying as Asian alone increased by 54 percent, from 10,266 in 2010 to 18,834 in 2023. Those identifying as Asian alone and in combination with other races grew by 84 percent.
People reporting a single race other than one of the five race categories provided on the Census form (i.e., white, Black or African American; Asian; American Indian or Alaska Native; and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander) were classified under Some other race. The number of these people in North Dakota more than tripled (240% increase) from 2010 to 2023. Additionally, individuals identifying as some other race in combination with another Census designated racial group (e.g., white or Black) increased sevenfold, reflecting a 600% increase.
The Hispanic or Latino population of any race has grown significantly in North Dakota, increasing by 175 percent from 13,919 in 2010 to 38,229 in 2023.

Despite these notable changes, North Dakota remains one of the least racially and ethnically diverse states in the U.S. Furthermore, diversity is unevenly distributed across the state, with urban areas having higher concentrations of immigrant and minority populations due to job opportunities and community services. Additionally, diversity is more pronounced among younger generations, with the younger population being significantly more diverse than older age groups.

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates

Note:
Race alone: The Race alone category includes only individuals who selected a single race category (e.g., only Asian). If someone selected both Asian and one or more other races, they won’t be included in the Asian alone, but in the Asian in combination with another race category.

Race alone or in combination: This category includes everyone who identified with a particular race, whether they selected it alone or in combination with another race. The "alone or in combination" category gives a broader picture of how many people have some connection to that racial group, regardless of whether they identify with additional racial backgrounds.

January 1, 2025

North Dakota ranks first among Midwest states in population growth rate from 2023 to 2024.

After a slight population decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, North Dakota's population is back on a continued growth trend. As of July 1, 2024, the state reached 796,568 residents, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Estimates released in December 2024. This marks a growth of 7,521 people (1%) from the revised 2023 estimate of 789,047. Notably, this one percent increase ranks North Dakota first among the other states in the Midwest and 16th among all U.S. states in population growth rate.

Examining the components of change reveals important trends in North Dakota’s population dynamics. While both annual births and deaths have declined since 2020-2021, the overall natural change has improved, as deaths decreased at a higher rate than births (11% compared to 4%, respectively). Between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024, there were 9,592 births and 6,867 deaths, resulting in a natural increase of 2,725 people. Notably, North Dakota is one of 32 states where births exceeded deaths during this period.

Net migration also played a significant role in population change. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the state recorded a positive net migration of 4,835 people, though slightly below the revised 2022-2023 figure of 5,181. This positive trend is largely driven by international migration, which added 5,126 residents, offsetting a domestic migration loss of 291 in 2023-2024.

Maintaining a positive natural increase and the ability to attract and retain residents contributes to North Dakota’s continued population increase.

Note: Annual releases of population and housing unit estimates involve revisions to yearly estimates going back to the most recent decennial census and are based on updated administrative records, geographic boundaries, and methodology. In addition to that, for the Vintage 2024 population estimates, administrative data were used to adjust the net international migration estimates. Details on this adjustment are available in the Random Samplings blog, Census Bureau Improves Methodology to Better Capture Increase in Net International Migration.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population and Housing Unit Estimates Vintage 2024 Estimates

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